EFL pundit George Elek vouches for a playoff spot for Wrexham despite being unconvinced of the club’s statistical numbers.
After a prolonged 2-week break, the Championship football returns this weekend. While the already gruelling promotion race is expected to get even tougher, this gap could have an effective say in who will go through to the Premier League.
While in-form sides like Wrexham need to pick up momentum again, they face an uneven playing field, too. With most of their promotion rivals out of the Cup competitions, the Dragons have a task to manage them both.
However, this seems to play in Wrexham’s advantage ultimately. On one hand, they get a warm-up with Ipswich in the FA Cup before the Championship clash, while on the other side, their Cupset over Nottingham has enhanced their playoff chances too.
This is as per EFL pundit George Elek, who has given Wrexham a possible playoff spot just based on their recent form. As quoted by the Lancashire Post, Elek said: “Right now, probably high on recency, I am going with Wrexham to make the play-offs. This is the most non-data pick of all time, because Wrexham are not posting good numbers.”
Having come a long way from being tipped for a promotion heartbreak to a playoff contender, Wrexham would take the compliment every day. Still, Elek’s point makes perfect sense as he sounds concerned for their statistical charts.
Wrexham’s recent stats portray a different story
On a pure outcome basis, Wrexham’s last 3 wins can be termed near impeccable. But the story flips upside down when the numbers start having a say in the discussion.
Starting with the first clash of the year, where Wrexham managed a 2-0 result over Blackburn. While the scoreline may not reveal it, the Dragons didn’t have the victory easily.
As per Fotmob’s stats, Blackburn had an upper edge over Wrexham in both possession and shots taken. Even on xG metrics, the Dragons only managed a 0.01 advantage over the Rovers. Though these stats didn’t affect the result, the comparison shows how close the game stood.
Repeating the observation for the Derby contest, the Dragons were outnumbered even more here. Losing the possession battle and the shots attempted, Wrexham were lucky to end up with 2 goals despite an xG of 1.00 compared to Derby’s single goal with an xG of 1.35.
The pattern becomes even more obvious with the Nottingham win, where Wrexham’s struggle stood visible. Once 3-1, the side nearly bottled the game if not for the home support and Okonkwo’s heroics that saved them.
Will Wrexham get promoted with such form?
What differentiates Wrexham from others is a tinge of Hollywood-level script in their success stories. Sometimes, not so evident, not so unforeseen, but they have been the only club to have made back-to-back-to-back promotions possible as well.
Primarily, it’s for this reason that pundit Elek couldn’t help but say: “They just keep on rolling and I am tired of backing against Wrexham, because it has not gone well for me so far. I will throw my weight behind them. I think they genuinely might nick sixth spot in this crazy league.”
If this prediction goes through, Wrexham stands a fair chance of sneaking up a Premier League berth for them. Maybe, not in the most dominant way, but with a side containing quite some promotion winners, the Dragons can put up a tough fight for that final promotion spot.
Again, given their current form, even closing out an automatic promotion slot would be an injustice. Having made a hat-trick of runner-up finishes in their last seasons, Wrexham are very much in the promotion race for sure.
