Leicester City has been forecasted to be Wrexham’s closest playoff rivals, with the Reds outplaying the former on fine margins to grab a playoff Top-6 spot.
When the Championship season kicked off in the 2nd week of August, Wrexham’s direct rivals stood fellow promoted Birmingham City and Charlton Athletic. Both the Blues and Charlton were expected to be the surprise packages, giving Wrexham a hard time in the second tier.
Slowly but gradually, Phil Parkinson’s men started levelling up in the Championship. A few wins started arriving in the bag, and elsewhere, Birmingham City and Charlton also faced their share of hardships in consolidating a mid-table spot.
As Wrexham grew more consistent in terms of results, the Reds’ fanbase started treating Swansea City as their main rivals. Overtaking them was a matter of Welsh pride for Wrexham, although Phil Parkinson’s men couldn’t defeat the Swans face-to-face in their first league meeting.
Fast forward to now, Wrexham is supposed to look out for better Championship business than remaining content with a top-10 status. Who should be the Red Dragons’ topmost rivals? Surely, that would be a promotion-eyeing outfit, but it’s not what Wrexham fans think.
As pointed out by WrexhamAFC_ES on X(formerly Twitter), Leicester City is predicted to be Wrexham’s closest competitors in a bid to secure a playoff ticket.
Leicester to go neck to neck with Wrexham for playoffs
Although Leicester’s name is arbitrary to many as Wrexham’s playoff rivals, their track record hints at it. In action for the 6th Championship rematch this season, the Foxes remain the only side against whom Wrexham have seen repeated results.
Interestingly, both their games have seen a full-time whistle at a 1-1 scoreline. What’s astonishing further is the similar flow of both ties, with both Wrexham and Leicester picking up a late equaliser alternatively.
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Mapping down their recent form, both sides hold a win, a loss and a draw in their last 3 games. Their latest results have been so similar that Wrexham and Leicester both trail 0-1(at the time of writing).
With one club rising from the ashes to the Championship, and the other holding the status of a fallen giant, Wrexham and Leicester’s current status is convincingly similar. The predictions complement the above similarities by hinting at a close contest between the two for the 6th spot.
As per the forecast, Wrexham is touted to grab the final playoff spot over Leicester. While the difference remains worth a possible promotion, the Foxes lose out on the Top-6 spot by mere margins.
Statistically, the Foxes edge past the Reds about a chance at a direct promotion with 2% hopes compared to their 1%. However, Wrexham’s advantage lies in their promotion through playoff chances, as their 36% beats Leicester 34% quotient for the 6th and last possible promotion spot.
Wrexham getting the 6th spot is not surprising
Championship is often labelled as the survival of the most consistent. In a 46-game season, a team finding their winning mojo is more likely to finish above than the squads that keep dropping their momentum every now and then.
All of Watford, Preston North End, Bristol City, and Derby County, which are currently ranked above Wrexham, fall into the same bracket of clubs. Very recently, Watford split points away to a struggling Blackburn Rovers, and Derby County couldn’t iron out a comfortable win against West Brom.
Preston North End got battered 4-0 by Middlesbrough, which will hurt their goal difference. In turn, Preston will move slightly down in the playoffs’ pecking order. Is Wrexham this inconsistent during their peak form? The simple answer is no.
Not long ago, the Reds achieved 4 wins consecutively. That’s not forgetting a period of 10 unbeaten games during November and December. Even if Wrexham manage to spare a draw at QPR, they have a potential goalfest evening awaiting them next week against Sheffield Wednesday.
Taking 3 points by scoring more than 3 goals will improve the club’s goal difference. Another morale booster can be the FA Cup 4th round tie at home with Ipswich Town.
The Tractor Boys sit higher in the Championship table than Wrexham, hence, the idea of rotating players will surely strike their minds.
If that helps Wrexham bag an FA Cup victory and progress to the next round, then that’s a huge win-win. The reason is that beating a top-tier club gives confidence to defeat them again.
In Wrexham’s case, the FA Cup tie against Ipswich Town follows another game against them at home. So, claiming the first win can have a massive say in the outcome of the second Wrexham vs Ipswich Town meeting.
Factoring all this in, a 6th-place finish is very much achievable for Wrexham. Let’s see if the Reds can deliver according to this prediction.
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