Supercomputer predicts that Birmingham City could end Wrexham’s playoff hopes with a 2-1 home win at St. Andrews.
It’s been more than a couple of weeks since Wrexham last registered a “W” in the Championship. The March international break played a part, but underwhelming displays against West Brom and Southampton have done them little good.
A draw at the Hawthorns and a crushing defeat in the playoff decider against Southampton have left Wrexham’s playoff hopes hanging by a thread. With the Saints extending their lead after a recent win over Derby, the game against Birmingham is now a must‑win for Wrexham.
In that regard, the return of Kieffer Moore and Matty James is a huge help. The forward is eager to finally find the net, and the veteran midfielder is willing to contribute despite an unresolved toe issue.
However, the question remains whether this double boost can change the Reds’ trajectory overnight. The supercomputer predictions suggest otherwise, with The 72 forecasting a 2‑1 home win for Birmingham.
Birmingham tipped to affect Wrexham’s playoff hopes
It’s no secret that Wrexham’s promotion success over the last three seasons has carried a touch of magic that ends up rewarding their season-long efforts. That luck had been missing in recent games, but matchday 42 results have gone their way so far.
Not long ago, Wales icon Malcolm Allen predicted that Hull would drop out of the playoff zone and Wrexham would find their way in. That prediction was followed by the Tigers losing to Sheffield United from a winning position.
Having gone 1‑0 up early in the first half, Hull seemed determined to end Wrexham’s playoff hopes with a win. However, a late comeback from the Blades kept the Tigers on 68 points.
That result has placed the baton in Wrexham’s hands. If they win at Birmingham, they can close the gap to Hull to a single point. A loss, however, would all but end their playoff hopes.
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It’s worth noting that Wrexham’s only route to a playoff spot is by leapfrogging Hull. If they lose to Birmingham as forecasted, their remaining run‑in would make it extremely challenging to close the four‑point gap with only a few games left.
That’s not to mention that Wrexham are scheduled to end the regular season with games against Coventry and Middlesbrough. Such tough fixtures necessitate a buffer lead, and not dropping points against a lower mid‑table Birmingham side.
Birmingham’s record against Wrexham increases playoff fears
Wrexham’s matchups against Birmingham City have been entertaining affairs since last season. Despite meeting for the first time in decades during the 2024/25 campaign, their battle for automatic promotion to the Championship placed enormous emphasis on both League One ties.
Though Birmingham have underperformed this season, their track record against Wrexham suggests they are more than capable of inflicting damage on the Reds’ playoff hopes.
Wrexham have failed to beat Birmingham since last season. After a 3‑1 defeat and a 1‑1 draw in the 2024/25 League One campaign, the Reds couldn’t grab more than a point in their 1-1 tie earlier this season either.
A couple of draws and a loss from two seasons ago shouldn’t scare them off. But the way Wrexham have bottled their leads in these games increases the fear ahead of a must‑win fixture.
Starting with the 3‑1 defeat in September 2024, Wrexham took a dream lead through Jack Marriott’s third‑minute goal. But a brace from Jay Stansfield and a left‑footed finish from Tomoki Iwata around the hour mark ended any hopes of taking points from St Andrew’s.
Wrexham’s home record against Birmingham is slightly better, with both meetings ending in 1‑1 draws. However, those games followed a similar pattern in that the Reds took the lead but failed to capitalise.
This trend is something Wrexham need to overcome on their trip to St. Andrews this time. Although Birmingham City are known to fight back and snatch points from them, the Reds need to see out a win to keep their playoff hopes alive.
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